Climate Change

№ 2026-42 · October 2026 · 17 min

Wet-Bulb Temperatures and the Emerging Geography of Unsurvivable Heat

No site analysed reaches the 35 °C wet-bulb ceiling before about 4.4 °C of global warming; the binding line is lower. Healthy young adults lose the ability to cool themselves in humid heat near 30.5 °C, a level 11 of 161 sites reached for at least an hour in 2024. Under current policies, about 2.8 °C, the cities touching it would hold 161 million people, up from 9 million today — around the Gulf, across South Asia and in eastern China.

№ 2026-41 · October 2026 · 16 min

Six of Nine Boundaries Breached — What Transgressing Planetary Limits Actually Means

The 2023 headline was six of nine planetary boundaries breached; by 2025–26 it is seven, all worsening. Measured as a multiple of the disturbance each boundary allows, humanity has used 2.1 times its CO₂ allowance, 3.1 times its climate-forcing allowance, about 2.7–2.9 times its nitrogen and phosphorus allowances and 11 to 111 times its extinction allowance. Each boundary translates into a budget, a floor, a ceiling or a ban — and the ozone layer shows a breached boundary can be brought back.

№ 2026-36 · October 2026 · 17 min

The Pollution–Climate Feedback System

Air pollution currently hides a large share of greenhouse warming: sulphur dioxide alone has offset about 0.4°C. Cleaning the air without also cutting methane adds warming in the IPCC's own scenario data, while cleaning the air and cutting methane together removes almost all of that penalty by 2050. Pollution and climate are one feedback system, and the levers that work on both — methane, black carbon and ozone precursors — come first.