Heat Stress, Labor Productivity, and the Hidden Economic Cost of Warming
Heat cut work capacity enough in 2024 to put about $490 billion of output at risk, a conservative estimate from hourly heat stress in 149 cities. The Lancet Countdown's broader estimate is $1.09 trillion. Either figure is of the same order as all climate damages in the DICE model at 1.5 °C. The loss is regressive (3% of hours in lower-middle-income countries against 0.2% in rich ones) and convex: one extra degree adds 73%, two nearly triple it. Moving work out of the afternoon recovers 20–30%.