The Economics of Resilience in an Age of Global Polycrisis
Volatility costs 0.04 points of growth a year while shortfalls of three points or more cost 0.9, shortfalls are largely permanent (permanent share 0.72–1.06, labour productivity 1.05), recorded disasters are only 4% of the loss while 65% is idiosyncratic and not disaster-linked (81% in low-income countries), and the global cycle explains just 6% of low-income growth variance, so a world risk pool removes over 90% of national risk and halving every shortfall would have left the average country about 8% richer after twenty years (the median country 5%).