Polycrisis Resilience This Century, 2000–2100
The world's disaster death rate fell 97% from the 1920s to the 1990s and has been flat since, while years with 100,000 or more deaths still come about one in five; on 2000–24 death rates and UN population paths the century's deaths run from about 3 million (capacity improving 3% a year) to 9 million (hazards growing 1% a year with no capacity gain), a factor of three that dwarfs the quarter-wide luck within any one path.